Tulsa at Oklahoma State

Tulsa was an offensive machine last season, hence this high total, but the team lost a lot of offensive firepower. They lose QB Dane Evans to the NFL, so for the first time since the 2010 season at Baylor, where he was OC and QBs coach, Coach Philip Montgomery lacks a returning scholarship quarterback who is a junior or senior. They also lost their top receiving targets. Tulsa's defense made huge strides last year, allowing 100 fewer yards per game than in 2015, and the unit returns seven starters. The Golden Hurricane are 7-18-1 ATS when stepping up to face the Big 12. A year ago their first road game was at the Big 10, losing 48-3 at Ohio State, sailing UNDER the total. They head to an Oklahoma State squad that is loaded behind QB Mason Rudolph (28 TDs, four INTs), off back-to-back 10-3 seasons. College football favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that outscored opponents by 10+ points per game the previous season are 36-10 ATS in non-conference play. In addition, chalk of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 425 or more total yards with a returning starting QB are 64-28 ATS. Coach Mike Gundy runs a great program and likes to run it up at home, 35-19 ATS as a home favorite. With the Cowboys on an 82-55 ATS run as chalk, back the home team in a game with more defense than oddsmakers anticipate. Play Oklahoma State and UNDER the total.