Troy at UL Lafayette

Troy has been impressive. They lost the opener to Ole Miss of the SEC, then lost 32-28 in September at Appalachian State as a +14 dog on a touchdown on the final play. Troy hasn't lost since, anchored by a dominant defense that is second in the Sun Belt in points allowed (17.6 pg). Troy is 22-9 ATS on the road after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in back-to-back games. And college football road favorites that average 3.25 or fewer rushing yards per carry are 41-15 ATS. UL Lafayette has dropped five of seven after losing to Southern Miss last week as a favorite, 39-24. They're one-dimensional on offense averaging 3.6 yards per rush, which will be a problem against this defense. And UL-Lafayette is 21-37 ATS at home against defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher. Play Troy.