Troy at Navy

Troy is 0-4 on the road this season, but a respectable 2-2 against the number. Navy on the other hand hasn't won a game since their opener and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. On the season, the Midshipmen are allowing nearly 34 points per game which makes them very susceptible as a near-touchdown favorite. The Trojans have covered five straight games in this range (underdog of 3.5 to 10 points) and they have bounced back nicely following a weak defensive performance (9-2 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 200+ yards on the ground). Navy is just 6-13 ATS in the favorite role and 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. losing teams. Navy is not comfortable laying points and I'm going to fade them in that role.