Troy at Boise State

Troy had a breakout season last year, logging 10 wins for the first time ever as an FBS member. I see a lot of value here, as most of the Troy offensive success has come against a weak schedule. QB Brandon Silvers returns after being selected first team all-conference from last season, and a lot of pieces from that apparently high-powered offense returns. Here is the game changer. In 2015, Silvers led the offense to 36.2 points per game against losing teams, but just 22.7 ppg vs. winning teams. The 2016 numbers are nearly identical. The Trojans put up 39.8 ppg vs. losing teams and 24 ppg vs. winning teams. Enter Boise State and the offense is likely to be held down again, especially in the season opener. Brett Rypien returns at QB for Boise State. The Broncos led the MWC in total yards but were just sixth in scoring. Gone is the all-time leading reciever in school history, Thomas Sperbeckm, as well as RB Jeremy McNichols, who was drafted by the NFL. It's hard to see this team being as productive, especially early. Make the play on the UNDER.