Toledo vs. Arkansas State

Arkansas State is making their fourth straight appearance in this Alabama-based Bowl, but it's the first with the same coach who was in charge during the regular season - another big plus. Arkansas State ranked #20 in the FBS with 36.1 points per game and #24 with 229.0 rushing yards per contest behind junior QB Fredi Knighten (19 TDs, 7 INTs) and RB Mike Gordon (1,064 yards). Gordon averages 7.1 per carry while QB Knighton has 775 yards rushing in this balanced and potent attack. Arkansas State is 12-3-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. They are also 3-1-1 ATS against the MAC. Toledo heads south for this Bowl with a weak defense (29.3 ppg allowed) and on a 3-7-1 spread run. The Rockets are 0-3-1 ATS in at neutral sites and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Bowl games. Arkansas State beat a MAC school in this Bowl one year ago and shouldn't be the dog here. Grab the points on Arkansas State.