Texas Tech at West Virginia

This is a super high total with a pair of pass-happy attacks, but Texas Tech's defense has allowed 24 points or less in three of five contests. That included a 27-24 win at Houston as a dog, sailing UNDER by 17 points. In their last five games, the Red Raiders defense has improved by creating turnovers, setting up pre-snap correctly and making sound tackles in open space. The Red Raiders rank fourth in turnover margin (+9) and fourth in turnovers per game (2.8). On offense, senior QB Nic Shimonek (14 TDs, three picks) leads an attack that is second in the nation in points (46.8 points per game), and fourth in passing yards. Texas Tech is on a 23-9-1 ATS spread run, including 20-5-1 ATS on fieldturf. They face a West Virginia squad on a 21-7 run UNDER the total in Big 12 games. West Virginia is also 17-5 UNDER against winning teams, plus 23-8 UNDER on fieldturf. The Mountaineers are favored, but #70 in the nation in points allowed because of a bad run defense, allowing 214.8 yards on the ground per contest (#110 in the nation). West Virginia is also 5-14 ATS against winning teams, 3-9 ATS after a defeat, and 6-21 ATS at home versus a team with a winning road record. The UNDER has cashed four of the last five meetings, so back the dog in a game with less scoring than the public and oddsmakers anticipate. Play Texas Tech and the UNDER.