Texas Tech at TCU

Texas Tech comes off a 45-17 disaster to Baylor but at 4-4, they're still alive for a bowl. The Red Raiders hung in there with three close losses to Top 25 teams (NC State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State), plus have wins over No. 25 Houston (33-30) and No. 22 Texas (37-34). Texas Tech is 35-18 ATS off a home loss, 34-19 ATS after a loss by 21+ points, plus 28-12 ATS after a bad game where they committed four or more turnovers. TCU is undefeated and a big favorite, though they haven't been blowing teams out. In the last four games, TCU has won by 7, 3, 10, and 10 points. That's because the defense is not elite surrendering an average of 31.3 points over the last six contests. Pass-happy coach Sonny Dykes is 21-37 ATS after playing three consecutive conference tilts, as well as 14-28 ATS in November games. In addition, Texas Tech is 49-28 ATS against teams that average over 200 yards rushing. Play Texas Tech.