Texas Tech at California

I don't like either side in this game very much at all. This seems like a lot of points for a team that should be playing in a much better bowl game. Hard to tell which Cal team will show up. Clearly Cal is the better squad and should rout here but I'm not ready to back the Bears. Texas Tech is 12-1 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses (allowing <90 rushing yards/game) and 10-1 ATS in road games versus excellent rushing teams (averaging >230 rushing yards/game) since 1992. Cal might be a bit flat, as well, playing in a lesser bowl than they were hoping for. Instead, we'll focus on the total in this game. It opened at 68 and has dropped three points. Obviously a lot of folks jumped on the UNDER. Not me. Games featuring a total of 63+ and a team with an incredible offense (450+ total yards/game) following a game in which they gained 6.25+ yards/play have gone OVER at a clip of 29-14 (67%) over the last 5 seasons. Also, games in which the total is between 63.5 and 70 and feature a team being outrushed by their opponents by 60+ yards/game have gone OVER 27-10 (73%) since 1992. Cal should score a ton here. Texas Tech is 17-4 OVER when they allow 28 or more points and 9-0 OVERwhen they allow 450 to 500 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Over the same time period, the Red Raiders are 9-1 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). These teams are averaging a combined 73 points per game. Cal will score a lot and Texas Tech will get their share. Two stars on the OVER.