Texas State at Arkansas State

Texas State is off a bye and has won two of three while playing excellent defense. They held Monroe to 24 points, Nicholls State to a field goal, and topped Georgia State in three overtimes, allowing 27 points in four quarters. Texas State is on a 9-3 run UNDER the total, including 11-5 UNDER on the road. Arkansas State had to play last week and got run over by UL-Lafayette at home, 37-20, allowing 315 yards rushing. Arkansas State is a big favorite, but has a losing record overall, including at home. Arkansas State is on a 3-9 spread run at home, as well as 4-10 ATS after allowing 450+ total yards the previous game. They are also 22-8-1 UNDER the total FieldTurf. Back the big dog to keep it close in a contest featuring more defense than oddsmakers anticipate. Play Texas State and the UNDER.