Texas at USC

The two best teams in the country, beyond any doubt, meet in the Rose Bowl this year providing the BCS a rare and probably brief victory. The game also features the #1, #2 and #3 Heisman vote getters. Does it get any better than this? Both of these teams come from below average conferences but are clearly head and shoulders above the crowd. Just look at the stats. USC scored 44.3 points per game on the road while Texas scored 48.6. USC allowed 20.5 on the road while Texas allowed 16.3. They both averaged nearly 7 yards per play on offense - ridiculous. Texas had a huge defensive advantage allowing 4.1 per play vs. 5.2 for USC. As you can see, Texas has a pretty big defensive edge, statistically. Yet, USC is a huge favorite here. Why? Well, their offense is one of the best ever. They have a running back that folks say is the best since Gayle Sayers. But, let us not forget that this Horns team went into The Horseshoe and beat an Ohio State team that handled Notre Dame with relative easy in the Fiesta. Notre Dame nearly beat USC if you recall. USC is the media darling and the square's favorite college team. That's why this line is over a touchdown. Texas may not be as good a team as USC but they are pretty close. How often do you get to take a team with a statistically better offense (50.9 PPG vs 50) and defense (14.6 vs. 21.3) and get 7.5 points? Note that in the last four national championship games, the team with the better defense covered and won the game outright. Yes, won outright and we get 7.5 here. Texas must face the Heisman Trophy winner here but did you know that bowl teams with the Heisman winner are just 7-18 ATS? That's right. The opposing defense gears up to stop the best in the land. If you are laying big points, you want an offense that can come back from a big hole if need-be. Vince Young and this Texas offense give us that. Especially against a pedestrian defense that is not nearly as good as last year's USC D. USC is one of the greatest teams ever and their offensive talent is mind-boggling. They have a great coach. But, I'll take the team with the better defense (6th in the country) that could win outright plus the very generous points. A team that showed they can beat a great team on the road (Ohio State). Three stars on the Horns. And, if you must, I'd lean towards the UNDER. With the public and media all over USC, you might get +8 or even +9 by game time.