This pick was released to clients on September 30, 2015 at 9:21PM ET.
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Texas at TCU

October 3, 2015
img12:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

TCU is going to have a few games like last week when teams are gunning for them. But don't overlook the fact that this is a supremely talented and experienced team. They got jobbed out of the Final Four in college football last year when Ohio State jumped them at the end as the Buckeyes were running up big scores late. Now TCU is the team that wants to run it up when they can and here are the Frogs undervalued against a rebuilding Texas team that can't score. Texas is off to a 1-3 start, its worst in 60 years. Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The injury to Texas RT Kent Perkins looms large for Longhorns. Just like last year, Texas can't afford to suffer any injuries or attrition at tackle. During the loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys last week, the Longhorns had to play for much of the second half without Perkins, who went down with a knee injury. Senior Marcus Hutchins filled in for Perkins and struggled immediately. Oklahoma State defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah beat Hutchins for a sack and Hutchins allowed another when he failed to pick up either blitzer on a Cowboys fire zone. The prognosis isn't good, as head coach Charlie Strong said that it may "take some time" before Perkins is ready to play again. With the right tackle out of the game, the Cowboys absolutely teed off on Heard for five sacks, including two on the final drive. Meanwhile TCU is 8-0 SU in its last eight games against the Big 12. Since a somewhat lackluster performance against Minnesota in the season opener, TCU has racked up 70, 56 and 55 points behind star QB Trevone Boykin. TCU has averaged just under 50 points per game in their four wins this season and is on a 14-5 ATS run, including 9-4 ATS in Big 12 play. All TCU in this one.

1 unit on TCU -14.5 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Texas Longhorns
0
0
0
7
7
TCU Horned Frogs img
30
7
10
3
50
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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