Texas at Alabama

BCS National Championship Game - Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA. Which of these two teams will remain unbeaten after this game? The oddsmakers and the public believe it will be the Alabama Crimson Tide as Alabama is a favorite of more than a field goal and despite that, 65% of the public is on them to win and cover. At first glance, it's hard to blame them. The Tide lead the nation in scoring defense (11.0 points per game allowed) and beat a good Florida team to earn their spot here. And, they have the Heisman trophy winner and a very high-profile coach. Meanwhile, Texas struggled to get by Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. The Longhorns were a two-touchdown favorite in that game and squeaked by with a 1 point win, scoring just 13 points. So, how can Texas beat mighty Alabama here? I think they do. And, I think all the naysayers are one reason why they rise to the occasion. This Longhorns team has a lot to prove and will be ready to go! Alabama doesn't have nearly as much to prove. They won the SEC and the Heisman. The entire offseason preparation for the Tide, the offensive and defensive schemes and plays, and all their work this year was geared towards accomplishing one thing - beating the Florida Gators. Sure, they will say differently. But, that's the truth. And they already accomplished that. Playing the Longhorns here is a downer compared the rush of beating Florida and I think that will show. While Bama certainly has a spectacular defense, Texas does as well. Alabama ranks 2nd in the country in yards allowed, while the Horns are less than 10 yards a game away ranked 3rd. So if the defenses are comparable, where will the edge be had? Either on offense, or in motivation, or both. The Tide have a decent quarterback but the Horns have Colt McCoy who has led them to nearly 10 more points per game than their opponent tonight. McCoy made many good defenses look bad this season as he completed over 70% of his passes on the season. In the process, the Longhorns offense converted 47% on 3rd down, which could prove to be key in a game like this. While the Horns don't have a featured back, they can stay fresh without a dropoff, as five different Longhorn backs have carried 50+ times on the season, with all having gotten into the endzone multiple times. The Tide has Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram in the backfield, their biggest weapon on offense. The problem for the Tide is that it plays directly into the strength of the Longhorn defense, which is the only stop unit in the country to hold teams under 2.0 yards per carry. Think about that! Look at what Georgia Tech was able to accomplish against Iowa in the Orange Bowl on Tuesday. The Hawkeyes quickly showed they could shut down the Tech running game and the Yellow Jackets, who were averaging 443 yards of offense and 35 points per game, were able to produce a meager 155 yards of total offense and 7 offensive points. That's the trouble with a one-dimensional offense when it faces a great defense. Certainly Alabama isn't as one-dimensional as Tech, but without a lot of success on the ground, the Tide could really struggle to move the ball and could end up facing 3rd and long which they are not used to. This is the best defense an inexperienced Greg McElroy will face this year and Texas has had a month to prepare to make life miserable for him. Texas in contrast can have more success adjusting thanks to a more balanced attack that averaged over 150 yards per game on the ground and 280 through the air. Back to motivation. Alabama has the Heisman trophy winner and just beat archrival Florida in a game that was arguably more important to them than this game. Texas has been questioned about their close win vs. Nebraska, and their star player got snubbed for the Heisman. Which team do you think is hungrier here? The Heisman winner is not insignificant. History shows us that the winner's team fares poorly in Bowl games to the tune of 8-25 ATS in the last 33 years! Why? It's likely a combination of overconfidence on the part of the team that has the winner, an overinflated spread thanks to all the media attention, and the other team gunning to show they can stop the country's "best" player ("We'll show them who is best!"). Thanks to the long-standing rivalary, and Alabama's bitter taste from a defeat to Florida in 2008, the Tide were all about beating the Gators this year. Heck, their most important game took place last game and this will be a letdown for the Tide, no matter how hard they try to avoid it. Don't get me wrong, Alabama will play hard here, its a National Championship game, but will it be hard for them to bring and duplicate the same energy they did with such a huge focus on Florida. If Texas can control and limit Ingram, and I believe they can (Texas ranked #1 in the country in rushing yards allowed at 62.9 per game), it could be a long day with 3rd and long for an inexperienced QB who is not used to being under the gun frequently. If forced to throw, will McElroy have what it takes to pierce a Texas secondary that gave up just 188.9 passing yards per game and notched 24 picks on the year? Texas is 10-1 straight-up the past two seasons vs. winning teams including 7-1 vs. teams at .750 or higher and 7-1 vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 10+ points per game. Alabama is just 8-18 straight-up in their last 26 games vs. good passing teams (those averaging 275+ yards per game through the air). I think Texas is roughly on equal footing defensively, and will be the hungrier team here with a pro-level QB, with lots of big game experience. No one gives Texas a chance here against an undefeated team coming in with the vaunted Heisman winner. Hmmm. Sounds a lot like 2006 when Vince Young and the Longhorns came in against the "unbeatable" USC Trojans and Heisman winners Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush. That USC team was hailed as possibly the best college football team ever. Mack Brown and his star QB won that game outright. I am calling for a similar upset here. Play Texas against the spread and/or on the moneyline as you wish based on your risk tolerance.