Texas A&M at Florida

Texas A&M has played very well, beating Arkansas and South Carolina in conference games, with close losses to UCLA (45-44) and last week to mighty Alabama (27-19) as a +25-point dog. Freshman quarterback Kellen Mond (seven TDs, three INTs, rushing for 266 yards) gets better every week and the defense continues to drop opponents in the backfield. Texas A&M will be the best offense Florida has faced this season, as the Aggies average 34.3 points and have scored at least 44 points in three of their first six games. Florida is 3-14 ATS at home after a loss by six or less points, off a 17-16 defeat to struggling LSU. The Gators mustered just 302 total offensive yards, including 108 passing yards. Redshirt freshman QB Feleipe Franks attempted only one true downfield pass (a long incompletion) and top WR Tyrie Cleveland (high ankle sprain) was out and may miss this one. A week after getting consistently beat on jet sweeps by LSU receivers exploiting the edge, Florida now must deal with a dual-threat quarterback putting up big numbers through the air and on the ground. Florida's young defense has looked far more vulnerable than the veteran units of past years. Senior safety Nick Washington (right shoulder) is out, while the status of sophomore safety Chauncey Gardner Jr. (ankle) is also in question. That will mean even more inexperience in the secondary. Home teams such as Florida with a winning percentage of 51% to 60% where the line is +3 to -3 are 21-53 ATS against winning teams. Play Texas A&M.