Tennessee at Vanderbilt

One of these teams is 4-6 and the other is 6-4. If we give the home team here three points for home field advantage, the oddsmakers are telling us these teams are basically even. I disagree. While the Volunteers have the storied program that Vandy does not, that doesn't matter this year. Vanderbilt is the better team and is playing at home. It all comes down to defense. The Vols are allowing 37 points per game while the Commodores give up just 18 per game (13.6 at home). In conference games over the past two seasons, Tennessee is just 3-11 ATS. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has quietly amassed a 10-2 ATS record at home over the past two seasons. Under Coach Derek Dooley, the Volunteers are a horrid 4-12 ATS as an underdog. Take Vanderbilt here.