Tennessee at Alabama

This is a very difficult spot for Tennessee. They have to bring an inexperienced QB to Alabama in front of over 100,000 in a sea of red to face a very nasty defense. Vols QB Tyler Bray went down on October 8th with an injury and replacement signal caller Matt Simms was overwhelmed in his debut. For the season Simms is connecting on just 38% of his passes at just 6.6 yards per completion with two INTs and no toughdowns. The Tide’s run defense is the best in the land and Simms is going to be staring down the barrel of third-and-long all day. The Tide’s defense has been good for the last few years, but this may be the best ever at 'Bama. A.J. Mccarron has been better than expected, leading the Tide’s offense with nine TDs to just two INTs. The running game led by Trent Richardson is lethal. Tennessee will be lucky to get to double-digits in this one. Nick Saban is 18-9 ATS here at Alabama vs. conference foes. Take the Tide to roll. Also take the UNDER. The Tide have allowed a grand total of 49 points this season in seven games. At home they have allowed 5.2 poitns per game. The UNDER has gone 39-17-2 in the last 58 Alabama games when they were posted as a -10.5 point favorite or better. The last 15 times Bama has scored 42+ points they have followed it up with an UNDER at a rate of 14-to-1. They are alos 16-2 UNDER at home after five straight wins. I like Alabama and the UNDER here.