South Florida at Rutgers

We have watched all the top teams get picked off week after week so far in 2007. Not one preseason Top 10 team still stands undefeated! South Florida has taken advantage of the situation, playing great and bolting up to the #2 team in the nation in the polls and BCS standings. They have now become anointed among the elite. We're a big fan of the Bulls and have ridden them to some nice ATS wins last season and this season. We were on them when they were under the radar and underrated. How times have changed! They have now become the darlings of the NCAA, much like Rutgers last season. The team that snuck up on everyone is now at risk of falling from the perch and we think they do. Now, the analysts love this Bullls team! They talk about how they have not allowed a 100 yard rusher in 12 games. The fact is, in many of their top games, the opposition has featured tandom running backs that have had success! Auburn had Tate 14-61 (4.4 ypc) and Fannin 14-62 (4.4 ypc). Lowly Florida Atlantic had Rose 10-59 (5.9 ypc), Edgecomb 4-27 (6.8 ypc) and Pierce 12-57 (4.7 ypc). Then there was WVA with Slaton at 15-54 (4.2ypc), White 9-36 (4.0 ypc), Brown 15-61 (4.0 ypc) and Devine 4-36 (9.0 ypc). So in those three games, yes - no 100 yard rushers. But, the nine running backs averaged at least 4 yards per carry (and averaged over 150 yards per game). So the lack of a back producing 100 yards is for the stuffed suits to comment on, while the fact is that this team is being run on. And, those suits conveniently fail to mention that Rice ran for over 200 yards against this same defense last year. Matt Groeth is a do-everything QB for S. Florida. He leads the team in rushing. So, the bottomline is Rutgers knows if they stop him, the Bulls are likely going nowhere. The Bulls have a few other warts including kicker Dalbery Alvarado. He went 2-6 against Auburn, missing from 35, 45, 37 and 21 yards out, with one being blocked. He proceeded to miss his only attempt vs. WVA. Rutgers blocked a punt last week, so look out! Alvarado is not the guy you want in a game expected to be close, and pressured to line up for a FG, at any point in the game. South Florida has a pair of excellent corners in Williams and Jenkins, but they still were burned for 259 against Florida Atlantic, 226 vs. Elon, as well as 250 to WVA. It took five Auburn turnovers for S. Florida to win in OT on the road. And, West Virginia turned it over 6 times to the Bulls! Despite that, the Mountaineers still out-gained South Florida almost 2 to 1 (437-274)! So, while South Florida is good, they are not THIS good. The final factor here at play is that Rutgers is home in a big game. This caliber of football is still a novelty at RU and the place is going to be out of control tonight, which is certainly a huge edge for Rutgers. Rutgers has the talent to not only stay with South Florida, but to win this game. Remember, it took 11 turnovers for South Florida to beat the two competitive teams on their schedule, as they were completely out-classed otherwise. And let's not forget that under Schiano, the Scarlet Knights are 29-16 ATS as an underdog and 12-3 ATS vs. great teams (those outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg). Rutgers gets the win in this one.