South Florida at Connecticut

South Florida is playing well right now but the numbers do not point to a ATS win here for the Bulls. Part of the discrepancy between these two teams is turnovers and these things regress to the mean over time. Home teams off a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 34-10 (77%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UCONN has played very well on their home field nearly beating Rutgers at home two weeks ago before succombing by two, and beating the Cuse by 19 on their home field earlier in Big Least play. South Florida looks like they're in a vulnerable situation here. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival facing an opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals are 34-9 (79%) over the last 10 seasons. This line is too big. Two stars on UCONN plus the points here.