South Alabama vs. Bowling Green

Bowling Green lost a lot of their defense from last season, but still managed to get to the MAC Championship game this year. That didn't work out too well, as they were crushed by Northern Illinois. While the defense did improve as the season progressed, the offense regressed, generating just 5.5 yards per play vs. teams that would combine to allow 5.8. The defense was average vs. the pass and below average against the run, but they showed improvement in the second half of the season. They should fare fine here vs. a South Alabama team that has a brutal offense, one that averages just 5.1 yards per play vs. a schedule of teams that allow 5.9. The Jaguars defense is above average, so this game should really be won or lost by the defenses. Overall the Falcons are 25-12 to the UNDER over the past three seasons including 11-2 UNDER when the total is in this range (49.5 to 56). Teams that lose a conference Championship game and are playing in a December Bowl game are 20-2 to the UNDER since 2006. Play on the UNDER in this one.