South Alabama at Troy

Troy joined the FBS all the way back in 2001 and had immediate success going 7-4. They continued that success until falling off for four years prior to going 10-3 last season. The Trojans have started off the season at 4-1, and no win was bigger in program history as beating LSU on the road as a 20-point underdog in their last game. The betting public has noticed and this line is huge as a result. South Alabama comes in with a much shorter FBS history. In their six years have never had a winning record. The 1-4 record and lack of history, coupled with Troy's 10-win season last year suggests mismatch, but the numbers don't show it as one this big. Troy is just +0.2 yards from the line of scrimmage better than their opponent's average, while South Alabama is just -0.7, which doesn't say better than a two TD favorite. Teams that win their previous game as a 17-point or more underdog, then posted as a home favorite cover just 42.9% of the time, as they often face a letdown. Take the generous points and play on South Alabama.