South Alabama at Texas State

South Alabama will take on Texas St. with both teams coming into the game with identical 6-5 records on the season. South Alabama has been playing great defense as they held Arkansas St. to 14 points and shutout Marshall in their last game. That same Arkansas St. team that South Alabama held to 14 points scored 77 on Texas St. last game. Texas St. is allowing a woeful 32.9 PPG on the season, and South Alabama 30 PPG. This game fits a huge situation in favor of South Alabama, that has to do with a team allowing 14 or fewer points in each of its last two games, playing as a road favorite, and one other key stat. These teams are a blistering 88-34 ATS, and I am making the play on South Alabama.