SMU at South Florida

SMU likes to throw behind QB Matt Davis, but will they have the ball much? Last week Davis was sacked five times. They face a South Florida team that is 11-3 UNDER the total in conference games, as well as 9-1 UNDER against a team with a losing record, plus 11-1 UNDER versus a team with a losing road mark. South Florida likes to run to control the ball and the clock behind RBs Marlon Mack (689 yards, 6.5 yards per carry) and Quinton Flowers. South Florida is 10-4 UNDER the total at home, part of a 23-10-1 run UNDER the total overall. The South Florida defense has allowed 24, 24 and 20 points the last three games (two wins). They come off a 28-20 win at UConn, holding the Huskies to 4.3 ypc. South Florida is 8-2 UNDER the total following a win and 18-8-1 UNDER on natural grass. It was a good offensive show last week but the Bulls are 20-9-1 UNDER the total after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Play this one UNDER the total.