SMU at North Texas

Seth Littrell is doing a tremendous job at North Texas as he took a 1-11 team in 2015 and improved to 5-8 in 2016 and then 9-5 last season, and he returns 17 starters this season. The Mean Green's offense is led by quarterback Mason Fine, who rewrote his school's record book in single-season passing yardage (4,052), touchdowns (31), completions (324), and pass attempts (511) in 2017. What's more, Fine has his top three receivers back, plus four offensive linemen return. The defense needs to improve as the Mean Green allowed 35 points per game, but with eight starters back and with 11 of the top 16 signees defensive players, North Texas will be better on that side of the ball. The posted total is ridiculously high based on last year's defensive performance and the loss to SMU, which makes this a good UNDER play. SMU has a new coach in pass-happy Sonny Dykes, which also raises the total, but the offense overall returns only six starters. And the Mustangs will be breaking in a new offense with new offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee. SMU lost four of its last five games in 2017, is 1-7 ATS its last eight games, and 0-4 ATS its last four road contests. The Mean Green is 7-2 ATS its last nine non-conference games, but the safe route in this matchup is to play North Texas on the moneyline and the UNDER.