SMU at Baylor

Oddsmakers made this total too high, thinking back to last year's 50-48 Baylor win in the opener against TCU. Well dynamic QB Robert Griffin III is gone, off to the NFL. The Baylor offense is rebuilding around senior QB Nick Florence and won't be as explosive as last season. Baylor's defense was terrible on the road and in the bowl game last year, but the defense played much better at home (where they were undefeated), pitching one shutout, holding Iowa State to 26 and Texas to 24. SMU comes to town with a retooling offense of its own led by new QB Garrett Gilbert, a transfer from Texas. Gilbert played only a little last season and threw two picks and one TD while completing less than 56% of his passes. He had season-ending shoulder injury (torn labrum) after week 2 with the Longhorns and transferred. Despite throwing all the time with Coach June Jones, SMU is on a 4-0 run UNDER the total. In addition, the UNDER is 4-0 in the Mustangs last four road games and 9-2 UNDER the total in their last 11 games on Field Turf. Play the UNDER.