San Diego State at Nevada

San Diego State can play conservative on offense, as they have a powerhouse defense and just clinched the Mountain West Conference West Division crown for the second straight year. The Aztecs have earned a spot in the 2016 Mountain West Football Championship game after a 55-0 rout against Hawaii last week. The Aztecs are among the nation's elite in every major defensive category. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, SDSU is second in turnovers forced (52), third in total defense (281.8), fourth in rushing defense (99.8) and rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.0). They are also fifth in scoring defense (15.9), and in passing efficiency rating defense (105.8) and third-down conversion percentage defense (30.4). San Diego State is 26-10-1 UNDER the total against a losing team, plus 15-7 UNDER in conference play. They face a bad Nevada offense that is #109 in the country in scoring (22.9 ppg). Nevada is on a 30-11 run UNDER the total, including 20-7 UNDER in conference play. Too much SDSU defense will keep this one UNDER the total.