San Diego State at Fresno State

The Fresno State Bulldogs had a feared offense last year with a QB and wide receiver that are both now playing on Sunday. They have had to replace the bulk of their offense, so points aren't going to come easy as the schedule gets a bit tougher. Fresno State has suffered three blowout losses, and got their two wins vs. an FCS team and New Mexico, who has been one of the worst FBS teams over the past few years. Fresno State has not worn the opponent with revenge hat at home very well as they have taken it on the chin at 4-12 ATS in their last 16. This game will be won in the trenches, and San Diego State holds a huge edge. The Aztecs are better than 2 yards per carry in net rushing yards, while the Bulldogs are slightly more than a -1 net yard on the ground. San Diego State lost at home last year 35-28. Despite all the weapons on the Fresno State side, the gap has shifted this year in favor of San Diego State. The Aztecs allowed fewer than 20 points in their previous game, and that has left them 7-0 ATS in their last seven after doing so. The run-happy Aztecs are now 27-12 to the UNDER in their last 39 games after rushing for 200+ in their previous game, and will grind this one out. Fresno State is 6-2 to the UNDER in their last eight conference games. San Diego State held this potent offense to 347 yards last season, and with those weapons gone, look for a low-scoring affair that will be won by the superior ground game of the Aztecs. Play on San Diego State and the UNDER in this one.