San Diego State at California

The Cal Bears allowed 42 points per game last year when they faced an FBS opponent. Despite that they finished at 5-7, and would have been a Bowl team if not for a Hail Mary completion vs. Arizona. The Bears hung in games with an offense that scored 40 per game, and this year they should be at least as good if not better on offense. They were projected to have 11 starters back on defense last year, but by game five of last year, they had just three left due to a rash of injuries. This season, they have much better players, much better depth, and the defense should improve to a level in which their offense makes a difference in many more games. San Diego State has been to five straight Bowl games, having good seasons, but not spectacular ones. They have a new QB, a transfer from Kentucky, who has had trouble staying on the field. I think Cal is going to be a big surprise this season, and have the most draftable QB in the country, and a vastly improved defense with more depth, needed because the offense plays and scores fast. This game fits a momentum angle which is 96-31 ATS, and has not had a losing season since 1996. Make the play on Cal.