Sam Houston State at Central Florida

Central Florida snapped a streak of six straight winning seasons by finishing last season at 6-7. They went through a telling stretch where they lost five straight games to Big-12 Conference opponents where they allowed 203 total points or 40.6 PPG. While this team does not look ready to compete in the Big-12, playing outside the conference vs. weak teams has had big results. The Knights opened the season with a thumping of New Hampshire 57-3. Sam Houston won at Rice, but remember UConn—one of the worst teams in the FBS for at least a decade—beat Rice last season, so that win by Sam Houston St. doesn't mean much to me. I think Central Florida lays a big number on them for the easy cover. Make the play on Central Florida.