North Texas won its fourth straight Sun Belt crown while Southern Miss finished second to Louisville in Conference USA this season. North Texas has seen its share of adversity this season, losing their starting quarterback to a tragic automobile accident this summer. They are lead by freshman running back Jamario Thomas who had a monster rookie season. North Texas will need to run the football effectively to have a chance in this game.
Southern Miss nearly upset the Cal Golden Bears in its final game just ten days ago. Southern Miss is 13-2 ATS after playing 2 straight games as an underdog since 1992. The Eagles are led by QB Dustin Almond, and have a very balanced, effective offense. Southern Miss is 23-8 ATS when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992. The defense has not been as stout as in past seasons.
In looking at this game, SOS or strength of schedule is an important factor. North Texas has really struggled against the major conference teams they have faced this season, getting pasted by Colorado, Texas, and Baylor.
Southern Miss, on the other hand, has faced many strong teams this season and nearly beat Cal, who is as good as anyone in the country, on its home field. The timing of this game favors the Eagles here as well, as they should not have many kinks having played less than two weeks ago. Underdogs at 60-75% SU getting 3.5 to 10 points after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 77-38 (67%) over the last 10 seasons.
The bottom line here is that Southern Miss may be too talented for North Texas. Southern Miss will load the box to stop Thomas. If they are successful, it will be a long night for the Eagles of NT. I expect a tough grind it out game early on, but Southern Miss should pull away for the W and cover late. Two star pick: Southern Miss.