Rutgers at South Florida

There isn't a lot of wiggle room in this one for South Florida as the total is extremely low at 42 and they are a double-digit favorite. The Bulls are gaining a lot of favor here because they beat Cincinnati on the road, who everyone sees as a tough team, but the reality is Cincinnati is an average team and the Bulls played their best game of the season. They were held to 15 total points in their previous two Big East contests and were out gained by a very weak Western Kentucky team that has lost at the line of scrimmage by over 250 yards a game vs BCS conference schools the last couple years. Rutgers was beaten soundly by Pittsburgh, the Big East's best team, so there is a spike in the line here based on each teams last game. Rutgers is a solid defensive team and has improved on offense with the insertion of Freshman Chas Dodd (check status). They have also risen tall on the road as a dog where they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26, while the Bulls are cashing few vs a team with a winning record at 6-16 ATS in their last 22. I like Rutgers here.