Purdue at Minnesota

We were on Wisconsin last week when they upset Minnesota. Again I think this is a game in which the line has the Gophers overrated. They have struggled to a 3-2 mark that is flanked by just a 1-2 mark at home, having committed 10 turnovers already this season. The offense is very vanilla and the passing game is one-dimensional: Weber to Decker. Decker has caught 43 passes while the rest of the team has 49 catches. Now Weber has begun to force the issue, with only one receiver he trusts. It has led to six TD passes and six INTs - a bad ratio. Purdue has a secondary that consists of four returning starters and should be keyed on stopping this combo. The Boilermakers might be 1-4 but they have not been beaten by more than seven points. Two of the losses were by 3 points to Notre Dame and by 2 points on the road at Oregon. Joey Elliot has done a much better job at QB than most expected, and it has opened up room for RB Ralph Bolden to notch 5.6 ypc. The Golden Gophers are just 2-6 ATS as a favorite within this range, and the Boilers own a 7-2-1 ATS mark in the last 10. Purdue is averaging over 30 points per game while Minnesota has allowed 30 points per game over their last three and the Gophers are 19-71 ATS over the past fifteen years when allowing 28+ points in a game. I like Purdue here.