Purdue at Michigan State

Purdue is for real, winning four in a row. Last week was the exclamation point, a 49-20 thumping of #2 Ohio State as a +12 dog. Fifth-year senior quarterback David Blough (13 TDs, 2 picks) leads the sixth-ranked passing attack in the nation, while the defense has been superb allowing 17 points per game the last four contests. The Boilermakers are on a 16-5-2 spread run on the road, plus 12-3-2 ATS away against a team with a winning home record. Purdue LB Markus Bailey earned Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week honors after recording 15 tackles along with an interception against Ohio State. Purdue is also 7-1 UNDER the total on the road. They face a strong Michigan State defense, second in the nation against the run (79.6 yards per game), while the secondary has nine interceptions in seven games. The offense is struggling, though, off a 21-7 loss to Michigan. The Spartans are 6-18 ATS after getting 275 total yards or less in their previous game. QB Brian Lewerke was 5-of-25 for 66 yards against Michigan and is dealing with a shoulder injury. Michigan State is 12-5 UNDER the total after a double-digit loss at home. Purdue is on a 4-0-1 ATS run against the Spartans, and the underdog is 12-3-1 ATS when these rivals clash. Play Purdue and the UNDER.