Pittsburgh at Louisville

Defense surely has not been the calling card for this Louisville team, but there are signs that it is coming together. They allowed an average of 40 ppg in weeks 2-4, but have since held good opponents to 10, 21 and 24 in three of the last four weeks. If you consider the Louisville defense bad, then you must consider this Pitt offense equally bad. The Panthers' offense ranks just 90th out of 120 teams and they are averaging 13.5 points per game on the road. In a game where they are going to have to score to stay in it, they may find the going tough. The Pitt defense has been stingy, but they have yet to face a high-octane passing offense. Louisville has passed for nearly twice the yards of any opponent Pitt has seen all year on the road! Brian Brohm does not make mistakes, having accumulated 3,000 yards in the air with 24 TDs and just 6 INT's. Yes, the Cardinals lost last week to Connecticut but the Big East officials admit they blew that one. As a result, we get a bit of line value on this game as Louisville should be a DD favorite. Pitt has historically struggled vs. good passing teams. They are 1-8 ATS vs. teams that complete 58% or better over the last three years and they are 3-12 ATS vs. teams that average 8+ yards per passing attempt in their last 15. Pitt has never been a road warrior either. They are 21-40 ATS when hitting the road after playing at home. Louisville rolls in this one.