Penn State at Florida

The Outback Bowl will feature a pair of teams that finished what has to be considered disappointing 7-5 campaigns. Last year these teams had far more impressive runs. The Gators lost a lot of offense from a year ago, and are considered offensively-challenged this season, but don't be fooled. There has been enough talent and special teams work to lift the Gators offense to 29 points or more in eight of their games. The defense is still good, but last year's Gators allowed an opponent to get to 30 just once, while this year's version has seen five of the last eight touch 30. The Nittany Lions are facing the same thing. They opened the season allowing 51 points against them through four games, or 12.8 ppg. But, they have since allowed 21 or more in each of their last eight. Penn State has become an OVER team with six of their last seven having topped the total. In January Bowls the Gators are 7-1 to the OVER, and each of their last six meetings vs. a Big-10 team have topped the total. In late season road games, the Meyer-led Gators are 17-8 tothe OVER. My computer matchup predicts this game falling right around this total at 49. I like the OVER here.