Oregon State vs. Boise State

HAWAII BOWL
The Oregon State Beavers are in the ultimate disappointment Bowl - and are lucky to be in one at all. They opened the season with a three-point loss at home to Eastern Washington, but then rattled off six straight wins and suddenly looked like a player in the Pac-12. They then proceeded to close the season with five straight losses. How did this happen? A closer look at the schedule shows that the six wins were against the two worst teams in the Pac-12 North and the two worst teams in the Pac-12 South. Their other two wins came against 1-11 Hawaii and 7-5 San Diego State. The Aztecs, despite their 7-5 record were out-scored by 50 points on the season. The quality win column for the Beavers sits at zero. The bigger problem is when they got into games vs. quality opponents, as they allowed 41.5 points per game in their last four. Boise State did not have a vintage season, but they still finished 8-4. Two of the losses were by three points in OT, and another by a single point on the road, at 11-1 Fresno State. This team still has a potent offense - one that topped the 40-point mark seven times on the season. But they have struggled defensively vs. strong passing attacks, so Oregon State should get some points here. Bowl games are big for the Boise State program and they simply do not take them lightly. The Broncos have won four of them in a row. And Oregon State hasn't beaten even an average team all season. OVer the past three seasons, Boise State is a perfect 7-0 OVER when playing on the road vs. bad defenses (teams that allow >5.8 yards per play). They are also 11-2 OVER during that span on the road following an ATS loss. At Oregon State, Mike Riley is 25-13 OVER in expected close games like this one (games at +3 to -3). He's also 40-21 OVER here vs. winning teams. I expect plenty of points here with Boise State coming out on top or at least keeping it very close. Take Boise State and the OVER.