Oregon at California

This is a great opportunity for the Cal Bears to make their season. They have been a topsy-turvy team this year, exchanging blowouts for and against. They have lost on the road by 21, 28 and 34 points, but won at home by 49, 49, 28 and 43 points. The good news is that this one is at home where they have not had an opponent come within 28 points of them. Granted, none of those opponents have been Oregon and the Ducks are a deserving No. 1 and have an offense that is a threat from anywhere on the field. But, the Ducks are vulnerable defensively. This one gives reminds me a bit of the Bears game two years ago at USC. The Bears handled a Trojans offense that was scoring big every game and Cal held them to 17, getting the cover as a big dog. Cal seems to do poorly when you expect them to win, but good when you think they are overmatched, and this one will get their blood going for sure. The pressure mounts with each passing game for the Ducks as the pointspreads get larger. Cal has been a highly profitable 19-6-1 ATS as a home dog from +10.5 and up in their last 26. The Bears are 12-3 ATS at home the past three seasons and I think they keep this one inside of 20 points.