Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

This game will be determined by defense and only one team plays it. Oklahoma State's defense is Top 5 against the run (first), total defense (third), third-down defense (second), and sacks (first). They come off a 63-17 rout of TCU, meaning the average margin of victory in their last three games has been 39.7 points. And for good measure, the offense averaged 47.3 points and 500.7 yards in those three contests. The Cowboys are 19-7 ATS against winning teams, 33-13 ATS after scoring 50+ points in the last game. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is #111 in the nation in points surrendered (33.5 per game), #86 in yards allowed. They've turned the offense over to freshman quarterback Donovan Smith (4 TDs, 2 INTs), making his second career start here. Oklahoma State has won 10 of the last 12 meetings and is primed to roll. Play Oklahoma State.