Ohio State vs. Michigan State

Michigan State is all about defense. The numbers say they have the best running defense and arguably the best overall defense in college football this season. But here is the issue. The best offenses in the Big-10, in terms of yards gained per game this season, were Ohio State and Wisconsin. The Spartans did not face either of those teams this year. In fact the fourth best offense was Penn State who they didn't face either. The best two offenses Michigan State faced were Indiana and Nebraska, and the Spartans allowed 28 points to each of those teams. The average offense Michigan State faced this season was ranked #82 out of 125 teams. That is the 65th percentile, or offenses that were below average overall. The best running team they faced was Nebraska who gained 182 yards on the ground on 32 carries. Also, running QBs can give great college defenses fits. We saw Auburn have two players go for over 100 yards against Alabama because the QB's mobility. Marshall was also huge running threat. We also saw the Tide defense struggle two years in a row against Johnny Manziel. Those three games vs. running QBs produced more points against Alabama (105) than the last 13 Alabama opponents combined! Michigan State will face a similar dilemma in this game vs. Ohio State who has the best running attack in college football in many years, averaging 7.1 yards per carry. QB Braxton Miller is a big part of that, generating 6.8 yards per carry with close to 900 yards on the season. The Buckeyes offense is balanced with 35 TDs through the air, and 40 on the ground. I went back and looked at teams that go into week 13 having allowed less than 10 total points in their previous two games, and they are 0-12 ATS, allowing over 30 points per game. Michigan State just does not have the offense to compete in a game where their defense allows more than expected, which looks to be the case here. Take Ohio State.