Ohio State at Purdue

The Buckeyes lost the battle of the stats last week in a big way against Wisconsin. They lost the first down battle 22-8 and were outgained by a 2-1 margin 368-184. They had the ball for just 17 minutes the entire game. Yet they were able to win the game 31-13. What did they do right? Looking at the numbers it is hard to understand how the Buckeyes won by 18. They did it with the No. 11 ranked defense that scored 14 points and special teams that scored on a 96-yard return. They were also very efficient, out-rushing the Badgers by a yard per carry and out-gaining them in the air by a yard per pass attempt. It proved the Buckeyes can win big even if their offense was not prolific. The Boilermakers are not a good football team, sitting at 1-5. They lost on the road to Minnesota last week by 15, in a game they should have been in. QB Joey Elliott will provide the Buckeyes defense with more opportunities as he has already completed nine to the wrong team. The Buckeyes’ offense will find a lot more room than they did last week when they face a defense ranked No. 76 that is allowing over 30 points per game. Ohio State's offensive struggles last week do not overly concern me. They have scored 30+ points in five of six games this year (only team they didn't lay 30 on was USC). They have put up 900 yards of offense in their two road games. That's all well and good, but should they be a road favorite after that performance? Consider this! Road favorites that have 5+ returning starters that are coming off a really bad offensive performance (gained under 225 yards) have gone 28-3 ATS over the past fifteen years! On top of that, Ohio State is 9-1 ATS the past three seasons as road chalk. The Buckeyes are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 conference games, including 17-4 ATS as a road favorite. They have covered seven straight after a SU win. The Boilermakers are just 11-24-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. This one is all Buckeyes.