Ohio State at Iowa

Iowa has the reputation for great defense, which for the most part the stats say is true. The Hawkeyes rank in at 16th in yards allowed per game. That only tells part of the story however. Iowa has played against three very good offenses in games vs. Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. In those tests, this defense has allowed an average of 412 yards per game. Those numbers would rank the defense at No. 90! In those games, the Hawkeyes were outgained by 57 yards per game. The biggest hole for Iowa is pass defense as they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to comlete over 62% of their passes. Ohio State is 9-1 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that allow 58%+ through the air. The Buckeyes have been a pointspread cash cow as a favorite at 42-17 ATS in their last 59. They have also been a road chalk of 10 points or less 13 times and have gone 11-2 ATS. Ohio State has an even more impressive number on the resume: they are 23-5 ATS on the road vs. a team with a winning home record. They are also 40-22 ATS under Jim Tressel vs. winning opponents. I like the Buckeyes to win and cover this one.