Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green

The Northern Illinois Huskies have dominated the MAC Conference over the past five years. The Huskies have an overall record during the period of 56-12. They have, however, wilted in the postseason where many of the 12 losses have occurred. Northern Illinois has been to the MAC Conference Championship game for four straight years, winning it only twice despite being the best team. The wins were by a scant 3 points, and the other in overtime. They have also failed in their Bowl games going 2-5 in their last seven. The offense, which has been huge over the last four years, has produced 27 points or less in the MAC Championship game in three of the last four years, and this year the offense is a lot more average. Bowling Green beat them last year, and at 7-5 may not appear to be a threat. The Falcons lost a lot of pieces on defense from that team and it showed early as they allowed 49.2 points per game in their first five games vs. FBS competition this season. They have really come together since as they have allowed 22.8 ppg in their last six. That is a three TD improvement over early in the season. The Huskies have a pretty identifiable history of scoring less, and performing below expectations once they hit the postseason. This year's team is not the same caliber of many of those past, while Bowling Green continues to play well on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons come in at 5-0 ATS following a 10+ point loss at home in their last five, and the Huskies' December resume reads 1-7 ATS in their last eight. The Falcons are also 7-0 to the UNDER after a 10+ point loss at home in their last seven, and the Huskies are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six off a win. Take the points on Bowling Green and play the UNDER.