Northern Illinois at Toledo

The Glass Bowl has the reputation of being a lethal spot for opponents, but that was when Toledo was atop the MAC Conference. This certainly has not been the case recently. A stadium is only as good as the players playing in it, but the reputation gives a jolt to the line in favor of a competent opponent. The Rockets dropped five of six here a year ago and have already dropped one here this year so the shine has worn off. Northern Illinois lost to a surprisingly good Idaho Vandals team that has now won four straight as an underdog and dropped an 8-point decision to a good 5-1 Wisconsin team. They have also gone on the road and beaten another Big-10 team, winning against Purdue. They are a potent offensive team that will play against a very poor Toledo defense that has allowed at least 30 points in all five of their games this season. The Huskies can match the Rockets score for score, but the difference is that the Rockets can't match the Huskies stop for stop. The Rockets just really struggle vs. teams that can match them offensively. Toledo is just 3-8 dating back to last season when they allow 28+ points and the Huskies will have no problem reaching that number today. Over the past three seasons, Toledo is 1-8 straight-up vs. teams that complete 62%+ of their passes (N. Illinois is averaging 62.6% completions). The Huskies beat Toledo 38-7 last season and I look for them to win again today. While I think they have a good shot at covering the 4 point spread, I don't want to lose this one if they win a close one so I'm going moneyline here.