Northern Illinois at Toledo

The Toledo Rockets have lost three games on the season. But those three losses were to teams that are well above them in stature –Syracuse, Ohio State, and Boise State. Despite being on the road vs. Ohio State, they lost by just 5 points, and it took OT for the Cuse to take them down at the Carrier Dome. The Huskies have taken a different path to 5-3 on the season, as their five wins have been over teams with a combined record of 15-28 and they also have a loss vs. 2-6 Central Michigan, so they aren't as good as their record would indicate. Toledo is probably better than their 5-3 mark, and in addition to their three losses against top level competition, the Rockets manhandled an excellent Temple team 36-13. Northern Illinois has shown their warts vs. winning teams where they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15, and overall have failed to cover in each of their last four on the road. As mid-level chalk, the Rockets bring home the bacon at 23-8 ATS in their last 31 as a chalk from 3.5 to 10. The Huskies are just 39-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Toledo, including just 1-5 ATS in Toledo. This is a Tuesday Night game with a high total, and these games are typically between mid-level conferences such as the MAC. Tuesday Night games are 1-9-1 to the UNDER if the total is posted at 59 or higher. The Huskies are going for 30+ in seven of their eight games, but have played some extremely soft defenses. Other than Wisconsin where they scored 7, the Rockets will be the highest rated defense the Huskies have seen all season. Toledo has also played to a 4-1 mark to the UNDER in their last five at home vs. a team with a winning road mark. Play on Toledo and take the UNDER.