North Texas at LSU

A bit chalky here you might say? Hardly! Maybe these big lined games get passed on by the average bettor who can't make heads or tails of them, but they are loaded with value. The 40+ big chalks have historically delivered 68% of the time as a matter of fact. Eight of the last fourteen games with a line this big were won by 50 or more. North Texas has been futile against BCS opponents on the road. They have dropped their last 10 straight ATS, losing by an average margin of 56-7! The one major worry in laying this many points is that the coach will decide to let up on the gas at the end of the game. Not Les Miles. Last season he allowed his QB to throw for three TD passes in the 4th quarter in a game he was leading by four touchdowns! Think he is gonna call off the dogs, with BCS rankings on the line? He has won and covered his last seven games as a -31 point favorite or higher, winning by an average of 45.4 points and covering the spread by more than a TD on average. This line looks scary, but the history shows it has value, and I'm laying the wood on the home team.