North Carolina vs. Missouri

This is probably a disappointing Bowl for both teams that thought their seasons had much greater potential. But, both finished with identical 7-5 records. The Tigers offense struggled down the stretch where they scored just 24 points per game in their last three. Two of those games were against Texas Tech and Kansas. Kansas gave up 40 points in eight games this season while Texas Tech allowed 34 or more points in their last 10 games except 31 points to Missouri. The Tar Heels lost three of their last five, but two of them were to Virginia Tech and Clemson. Their defense was strong down the stretch allowing just 20.5 ppg, and with a struggling Missouri offense, the points look like the valued side here. The Tar Heels have been a very good choice as a dog where they are now 19-9 ATS in their last 28, while Missouri has been a neutral-site lemon at 3-8 ATS in their last 11, dropping five straight in December. Over the past three seasons, Missouri has laid a goose egg (0-7 ATS) vs. teams that can pass the ball (teams like North Carolina that average 8+ yards per pass attempt). During Gary Pinkel's timee at Missouri, the Tigers are just 22-36 ATS vs. teams that complete 58%+ of their passes. Play on North Carolina.