North Carolina at Illinois

Last year it seemed like North Carolina was scoring in just about every quarter, but in their opener they were shutout in two of them and that proved decisive. They seemed to have control past the midway point of the third quarter up by 10, but Georgia scored four different ways in the last 20 minutes. They ran one in, threw for another, kicked a FG, and got a safety. They had no answer for Nick Chubb, or the rest of the Georgia backs, who churned out over 300 yards. It is the third straight loss for this team, going back to last season, after they ran off 11 straight wins. This is a huge letdown spot, and facing an "easy win" vs. Illinois, who they beat 48-14 last season, is not going to get them very excited. They need to be careful as the Illini were 4-2 at home last season, beating Nebraska and losing by just 11 to Wisconsin. Illinois has been a pesky home dog where they are 10-6 ATS in their last 16. This is a tough spot for the Tar Heels, and even tougher to avoid the letdown. Teams that lost on the road by 34 or more points last season, and seeking revenge as a home dog of seven to 10.5 points this year, are 69-42-4 ATS covering 62.2%. Lovie Smith has changed the culture here, so make the play on Illinois.