North Carolina at Connecticut

Last year the Tar Heels destroyed a then-ranked Huskies’ squad to the tune of 38-12. The game turned as the Huskies played an unusually mistake-prone game, with three INTs and the Heels blocked three punts, which turned the game completely around. When you look at the numbers from that game without knowing the final score you'd think UConn won. The Huskies outgained the Heels 378-263, but the special teams gaffs along with the three INTs changed the entire complexion of the game. Now the Huskies look for revenge at home where they have gone 11-2 over the last two years. When posted as a home dog, they have gone 12-6 ATS. Butch Davis has done a good job at Carolina, but when taking to the road as a favorite, his squad is 0-2-1 ATS, still seeking their first cover. The Huskies have reigned supreme in out-of-conference games going 30-14-1 ATS in their last 45, and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four as a home dog of 3.5-10 points. They are also 20-8 ATS returning home from a road game and 9-2 ATS in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Randy Edsall. I'll go with the Huskies in this one.