New Mexico State at Sam Houston State

Sam Houston is 1-4 ATS its past five games as a favorite of at least 10.5 points and the Bearkats come off a 3-9 season when they had a rude awakening in their FBS debut. This year the Bearkats have wins over Rice and Hawaii and a 45-14 loss to UCF, and they are laying too many points in this game. New Mexico State does come off a 48-0 shellacking at Fresno State, but the Aggies covered against Liberty, getting 22 points and losing 30-24. They won 10 games last season for the first time since 1960. The Aggies are 11-4 ATS their past 15 games and Sam Houston allowed 308 total yards, including 252 through the air against Hawaii. New Mexico State has covered six straight against C-USA opponents and the Aggies are 6-2 ATS their past eight road games. Look for them to stay within the number in this matchup. Take New Mexico State.