New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green

Bowling Green definitely will have the feel of a home field advantage here as Detroit is only about 80 miles away. The Falcons won four of their last six games, including a huge victory over their main rival Toledo. The Falcons are led by quarterback Matt McDonald, who threw for 2,639 yards and 22 touchdowns with only eight interceptions for a 135.54 QB rating. Bowling Green wasn't expected to do much this season, which means it will be motivated to top off the season with a bowl victory after starting 1-3. New Mexico State managed to get enough wins to become bowl-eligible, but two of them came against FCS schools, including a 65-3 romp versus Valparaiso in a game that was scheduled to replace a canceled game against San Jose State. The Aggies had one impressive win and that was their inexplicable 49-14 conquest at Liberty as a 24-point underdog. Bowling Green is 4-2-1 UNDER its past seven games and 9-4 UNDER its past 13 games after scoring fewer than 20 points its previous game. New Mexico State is #113 in the country in total offense yards and #120 in passing yards. Take Bowling Green and the UNDER.