New Mexico at Colorado State

Colorado State is having one of those seasons. It's one that has them taking dead aim on a major Bowl at 9-1 and right now they're best of the mid-major conference teams. The Lobos have an elite running attack that generates 6.2 yards per play vs. a schedule of teams allowing 4.5. The problem is as good as the running attack is, the defense gives it all back as they allow 6 yards to teams averaging 4.5. They can't throw the ball, so if they get behind it is essentially over, and they do not defend the pass well at all. Colorado State is an elite passing team at 9.5 yards per attempt and will score at will here. The Lobos will stay in this for a bit with their running attack, but once they fall behind they are doomed. The Rams fit a strong statistical matchup situation that is 28-2 ATS. Give the points on Colorado State.