New Mexico at Boise State

This is not the Boise St. team we have seen in recent years. That version played 21 seasons with 20 of them resulting in four or fewer losses. Boise St. has limped to a 4-5 record on the season, and it makes two of the last three seasons with five or more losses. Things have changed so much the Broncos have been favored by more than eight points just once all season, so covering nearly four TDs looks ominous if you are looking their way. The fact is in their four wins on the season they would not have covered this line in any of them, and they have won by 27 or more just four times in the last three years. New Mexico hasn't been a dog of more than 14.5 points all season except their game vs. Texas A&M. The Lobos average 27.4 points a game and will get enough here to stay within an inflated number built on reputation, not this season. Make the play on New Mexico.